You’re picking a cross‑platform stack that has to hold up for 3–5 years. The two leaders—Flutter and React Native—both matured a lot in the last 18 months. This guide gives you a fast, numbers‑and‑mechanisms view so you can make a confident call.

TL;DR

  • Pick Flutter when you care most about animation smoothness and consistent UI across devices, or when you need desktop alongside mobile with one codebase. Flutter’s Impeller renderer is now default on iOS and modern Android, removing shader‑warm‑up jank and improving frame stability.
  • Pick React Native if your team is fluent in React/TypeScript, you want tight code‑sharing with web, or you value the Expo toolchain for CI/CD and OTA updates. RN’s New Architecture (Fabric, TurboModules, JSI) is default since 0.76, with better startup and fewer bridge bottlenecks.
  • Hiring reality (2024 data): Among professional devs, Flutter 9.4% vs React Native 9.0% usage; among learners Flutter leads (11.1% vs 6.7%). Talent exists for both; React skills are broader for web integration.
  • TCO: Both are open source. Platform fees still apply (Apple USD 99/year, Google Play USD 25 one‑time). Expo adds optional build/update services with a Free tier (30 builds/mo, updates to 1,000 MAUs) and paid plans as you scale.

Why this decision still matters in 2025

Both frameworks shipped structural upgrades recently:

  • Flutter: Impeller moved from iOS‑only to iOS + Android API 29+ by default, smoothing animations and reducing shader stutter. Desktop support remains first‑class in docs (Windows, macOS, Linux) if you need it.
  • React Native: The New Architecture is the standard path: Fabric for rendering, TurboModules and JSI for fast native interop, and Hermes as the default JS engine. Expo SDK 52 aligned and enabled New Arch by default for new projects.

In short: both stacks closed long‑standing performance and tooling gaps. Now it’s a product fit and team fit choice.

How to decide (use‑case snapshots)

If you need… Choose Why
Pixel‑perfect motion, heavy custom graphics, many screens Flutter Single renderer controls every pixel; Impeller reduces shader jank and keeps frame pacing tight.
Web + mobile with shared UI logic, strong TS/React culture React Native One mental model with React, easier code sharing via react-native-web, Next.js, or design tokens.
Fast greenfield MVP with CI/CD and OTA out of the box React Native (Expo) EAS Build/Submit/Update speed up releases; free tier to start, paid as you scale.
Mobile first, but desktop (Win/macOS/Linux) soon after Flutter Official docs and tooling for desktop targets from one codebase.
“Native‑native” look and feel with platform UI controls React Native Uses platform native components by default; easier to align with iOS/Android conventions.

Performance in practice (2025)

Rendering & UI:

  • Flutter draws its own UI via the engine—now Impeller—for consistent visuals across platforms and smooth animations.
  • React Native renders native components and now avoids the legacy bridge overhead with Fabric/TurboModules, improving interop and responsiveness.

Startup & memory:

  • Hermes (default since RN 0.70) typically improves startup time and reduces memory vs JSC on many apps; always verify with your own traces.
  • Flutter AOT‑compiled Dart and Impeller’s pre‑compiled shader approach help avoid runtime shader compilation stalls. Use --analyze-size and DevTools to keep binaries lean.

Web & desktop:

  • Flutter Web offers CanvasKit/SKWASM renderers; performance varies by workload—test critical flows. Desktop is supported for Windows, macOS, Linux.
  • React Native can target web via react‑native‑web (shared components on the DOM) and Windows/macOS via Microsoft’s forks if you need desktop UIs.

Reality check: Benchmarks online rarely match your app. Do a week‑long spike: implement 3–5 critical screens and gestures in each stack, measure cold start, P95 frame time, bundle size, and build times under CI.

Hiring & team velocity

  • Developer supply: Stack Overflow 2024 shows Flutter (9.4%) and React Native (9.0%) among professional developers; learners skew Flutter (11.1%)—a sign of future supply.
  • Transferable skills: React teams move faster on RN; Dart is easy to learn, but React/TS is more common across web.
  • Onboarding & docs: Expo and RN docs are thorough and updated for New Arch. Flutter’s docs remain some of the best in any framework.

Total cost of ownership (TCO)

Baseline costs (store + tooling):

  • Apple Developer Program: USD 99/year to publish on iOS.
  • Google Play Console: USD 25 one‑time to publish on Android.
  • CI/CD & OTA: Expo EAS has a Free tier (30 builds/month; updates to 1,000 MAUs) and paid tiers as you scale. Flutter works well with GitHub Actions/Bitrise/Codemagic; costs depend on your runner minutes.

People & process:

  • React Native often reduces headcount by letting your web engineers contribute directly. You’ll still need native expertise for device integrations and store policies.
  • Flutter can reduce design/QA variance across devices thanks to a single renderer—fewer “Android looks off” bugs, but designers should plan for platform nuances (navigation, gestures, typography).

Maintenance:

  • React Native: plan capacity for major upgrades (e.g., 0.7x → 0.7y) and library compatibility under the New Architecture.
  • Flutter: monitor engine/runtime updates that can change binary size or GPU behavior; keep an eye on native plugin maintenance via pub.dev.

A simple TCO sketch (first 12 months)

Cost bucket React Native (Expo) Flutter
People (2–4 full‑stack devs) $$–$$$ $$–$$$
CI/CD & OTA Free → $$ (EAS) $ (self‑hosted) → $$ (SaaS)
Store accounts $$ (Apple 99 + Google 25) $$ (Apple 99 + Google 25)
Native modules/integrations $–$$ (case‑by‑case) $–$$ (case‑by‑case)
Testing & QA $$ $$

Tip: Your biggest lever is scope management and release cadence, not framework choice. Pick the stack your team ships fastest in and budget for one “hardening” sprint post‑launch.

Risks and mitigations

  • Library maturity (RN New Arch): Most popular libs are compatible, but check reactnative.directory and run a pilot upgrade before committing your mainline.
  • Binary size (Flutter): Track size budgets early; use split APKs/AABs and tree‑shaking; avoid oversized assets.
  • Desktop plans: If desktop is a must in 2025, Flutter’s official support is simpler; RN Windows/macOS are good but evolve on a slightly different cadence.

Our recommendation

  • If your org already leans React/TS and you want web/mobile alignment and Expo’s tooling, React Native is usually the faster path.
  • If your product is motion‑heavy or you need one codebase for mobile and desktop, Flutter is hard to beat.
  • When in doubt, prototype in both for a week and compare real metrics.

Next steps

  • Start a pilot with a 2‑week spike and a success checklist (startup < 1.5s, P95 frame time < 16.7 ms on two target devices, crash‑free sessions > 99.5%).
  • Want a second opinion or a pilot team? get mobile consultation.

Sources and further reading